Taskforce on Ocean Governance

Science, Risk, & Uncertainty

For many oceans issues, risk perceptions have a profound effect on governance. However, the nature of those impacts is complex and needs additional study. For instance, in some cases relatively low levels of scientific uncertainty may be cited as cause for inaction by policy makers while in others precautionary regulations are implemented in spite of high levels of scientific uncertainty. Sometimes this variation depends on the vividness and salience of the problem, or other factors that strongly influence individual-level perception of risk. Competing risks may also play a role, particularly when solutions to environmental problems carry high economic costs. In other words, the environmental risk may seem smaller compared to the economic risk, as we see in some of the discourse on climate change. When those who are most affected by the problem have little say in decision-making, the resulting power disconnect can also cause policy-makers to downplay risks and ignore scientific advice. These are just a few of the factors that help to explain the roles of science, risk, and uncertainty in oceans governance.

In this cluster, we hope to bring together people with expertise in all fields related to this topic, including the psychology of risk, science communication, environmental governance, epistemic communities, and ecological economics. If you’d like to join the cluster, please click here to become a member. This will allow you to post information on the page and give you the opportunity to receive information and updates via the Oceans Taskforce listserve.

While we do not have funding ourselves, we do hope to foster joint projects via Working Groups, which would bring together cluster members to write grant proposals, put together collected volumes/special issues, or develop webinars, workshops, syllabi, or similar products. All projects should focus on the cluster topic and fit within the ESG Science Plan (http://www.earthsystemgovernance.org/research-agenda/). Working group members should come from more than one institution and should have sufficient expertise to accomplish project goals. Forming a working group can help you to expand your professional network. It will also provide mentoring from the cluster leaders and access to logistical support like web-conferencing from ESG headquarters. To submit a Working Group proposal, please fill out this form and send it to the cluster leader(s) listed below. If you’d like to propose a Working Group that fits in more than one cluster, please send it to the leaders of each cluster in a single e-mail. Scroll down for descriptions of active Working Groups

 

Cluster Leaders:

Mark Axelrod
Michigan State University, USA
axelrod3@msu.edu

Leandra Goncalves
University of Campinas, Brazil
goncalvesleandra@gmail.com

Matthew Cutler
Yale University, USA
matthew.cutler@yale.edu

 

Active Working Groups

Uncertainty at the Tuna RFMOs
Co-Leads: Mark Axelrod (Michigan State) and D.G. Webster (Dartmouth)
Products: A workshop and a joint paper

Description: This project began before the taskforce was created. In fact, it was one of several projects that catalyzed our decision to foster community around the issues of oceans governance. The co-leads secured funding from the International Studies Association for a workshop on Uncertainty in International Regimes in the winter of 2017. Prof. Axelrod also received some support from Michigan State University to undertake data collection from the reports of the 5 regional fisheries management organizations dealing with tunas and other highly migratory species. The main research question for this working group is, “under what conditions does scientific uncertainty lead policy-makers to reject or adhere to scientific advice?” Preliminary results reveal an interesting interaction between uncertainty and price: for low-priced stocks, increasing uncertainty surprisingly correlates with more adherence to scientific advice, but total uncertainty is correlated with less adherence; in contrast, for higher-priced stocks, the reverse is true. We’ve also looked at change in scientific uncertainty and can show that, on average, reported uncertainty has decreased over time. This is not correlated with the likelihood of scientists making any recommendation to act, but does affect the type of management recommendation.

Participants: Oran Young, Peter Haas, Ron Mitchell, Leandra Gonçalves, Sikina Jinnah, David Kerstetter, James Bence, Michael Jones, Nataliya Stranadko

Co-Clusters: Fisheries, Conflict & Diplomacy

Closed to new participants.